Scenario-Planning Assumptions

The Climate Web is structured to support climate change scenario planning which can involve making a large number of decisions across scientific, policy, socioeconomic, and other variables. Just a few of the relevant assumptions you can explore in the Climate Web, or that the Climatographers can help you explore, include:

  • "Expected" levels of climate change will drive climate decision-making
  • 2nd and 3rd order impacts of climate change will remain hazy and not seen as material
  • 2o C will remain the consensus global target
  • A 1.5o C target is so out of reach it won't become a consensus climate target
  • A 1.5o C target will be adopted in response to accelerating climate change
  • A risk-averse decision-making paradigm will take over from "expected outcomes"
  • A shift in public opinion will reduce climate polarization
  • Business best practice will evolve to include material internal carbon prices
  • Business can adapt to foreseeable climate change at modest cost
  • Business efforts will succeed in significantly reducing GHG emissions
  • Carbon offset prices will rise rapidly with climate ambitions
  • Carbon offsets will lose much of their environmental credibility
  • Carbon prices will never be high enough to influence aviation sector outcomes
  • Carbon pricing will never be high enough to influence oil sector outcomes
  • Carbon pricing will rapidly influence electric sector decision-making
  • Climate change just isn't likely to be material to my company
  • Climate change will create major new business opportunities
  • Climate litigation efforts will continue to fail
  • Climate policy advocacy by business becomes part of business best-practice
  • Climate policy advocacy by business will remain a small part of the business response
  • Cognitive barriers to climate action will prevent a substantial policy response
  • Companies will adopt much longer-term horizons for assessing and disclosing risks
  • Consumers will seriously challenge companies' license to operate
  • Corporate emissions reductions will remain the business focus
  • Disruptive activism remains an annoyance but will not be business-material