Scenario-Planning Assumptions
The Climate Web is structured to support climate change scenario planning which can involve making a large number of decisions across scientific, policy, socioeconomic, and other variables. Just a few of the relevant assumptions you can explore in the Climate Web, or that the Climatographers can help you explore, include:
- "Expected" levels of climate change will drive climate decision-making
- 2nd and 3rd order impacts of climate change will remain hazy and not seen as material
- 2o C will remain the consensus global target
- A 1.5o C target is so out of reach it won't become a consensus climate target
- A 1.5o C target will be adopted in response to accelerating climate change
- A risk-averse decision-making paradigm will take over from "expected outcomes"
- A shift in public opinion will reduce climate polarization
- Business best practice will evolve to include material internal carbon prices
- Business can adapt to foreseeable climate change at modest cost
- Business efforts will succeed in significantly reducing GHG emissions
- Carbon offset prices will rise rapidly with climate ambitions
- Carbon offsets will lose much of their environmental credibility
- Carbon prices will never be high enough to influence aviation sector outcomes
- Carbon pricing will never be high enough to influence oil sector outcomes
- Carbon pricing will rapidly influence electric sector decision-making
- Climate change just isn't likely to be material to my company
- Climate change will create major new business opportunities
- Climate litigation efforts will continue to fail
- Climate policy advocacy by business becomes part of business best-practice
- Climate policy advocacy by business will remain a small part of the business response
- Cognitive barriers to climate action will prevent a substantial policy response
- Companies will adopt much longer-term horizons for assessing and disclosing risks
- Consumers will seriously challenge companies' license to operate
- Corporate emissions reductions will remain the business focus
- Disruptive activism remains an annoyance but will not be business-material